Once Bitten, Twice Shy: The Effect of a Banking Crisis on Expectations of Future Crises PDF Print E-mail

Neven Valev, Georgia State University


Survey data from Bulgaria show that people who had experienced a loss during a banking crisis are significantly more likely to expect a new crisis. This result holds despite 12 years between the earlier crisis and the survey, and the dramatically improved performance of the financial sector and the economy in the meantime. However, we find that earlier experiences affect expectations only for less informed individuals. People with greater ability/motivation to evaluate the economy are unaffected by their prior experiences. 


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National Council for Eurasian and East European Research (NCEEER) is a non-profit organization created in 1978 to develop and sustain long-term, high-quality programs for post-doctoral research on the social, political, economic, environmental, and historical development of Eurasia and Central and Eastern Europe.   More

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